9/18/2017 Investment Opportunity #3


Investment Opportunity #3 As the last and final great opportunity, we’re going to give it some extra juice and make it a two for one. Who doesn’t like a BOGO? Actually, you’re spending nothing beyond your own time in reading this blog so BOGO isn’t really right, is it? On with th..Read More

09/07/2017 Investment Opportunity #2


Investment Opportunity #2 Getting back to our three part series surrounding great investment opportunities, you’ll notice a theme developing. The theme is about identifying potentially large reversals of current trends. Counter to the greater fool theory employed by so many i..Read More

08/29/2017 We Interrupt This Program…


We Interrupt This Program… I was well into my second piece on great investment opportunities when a lot of stuff just happened. Let’s interrupt our series of the Three Best Investment Opportunities to touch base on what’s happening in the news and how the markets ar..Read More

08/21/2017 Three Big Investment Opportunities – Part I


Three Big Investment Opportunities – Part I As promised, this update will be the first of a three-part series that brings to light three longer term, pending, Investment opportunities. Please, do yourself a favor and don’t run out and act on any of this information today. Wa..Read More

08/14/2017 Investing With Your 20 Year Goggles Firmly In Place


Investing With Your 20 Year Goggles Firmly In Place I am purposely writing more these days on topics surrounding return expectations because this is that critical time when investors make a lot of mistakes. Beyond managing your wealth, much of our job as your advisor is to talk y..Read More

08/09/17 There Are No Shortcuts


There Are No Shortcuts I read a quote in National Geographic this morning and it got me thinking. This is not an alert type update but rather a timely reminder for all of our clients. “We can’t save the people who want to take maximum shortcuts” Matt G..Read More

07/17/2017 - Nothing New


Nothing New As a reminder to all, the Red Sky Report is delivered on an as needed basis.Effectively, when there is something noteworthy to report, you’ll hear all about it with several pieces covering the action in short order.When trends are persistent and we’ve already di..Read More

05/06/2017 False Alarm (For Now)


False Alarm (For Now) In the last update, we had many indications that the markets were angling toward the typical summer correction following the age-old pattern of “Sell in May, and go away”. Surprisingly, we saw a surge higher in prices last week that took our indicators of..Read More

5/17/2017 Summer Correction and Unaffordable Housing


Summer Correction and Unaffordable Housing Wow, what a change one week can make. Conditions are changing very quickly now and this is a good time for an update on the markets and real estate considering the Housing Starts numbers reported this week. Time to wake up. ..Read More

5/2/17 I've Seen a Lot Worse


I’ve Seen a Lot Worse These days, we’re taking a lot of calls from prospective and existing clients about whether or not this is a good time to be adding to investment accounts. Most really want some sense of comfort that they are not going to be putting money in right as t..Read More

4/3/2017 Three Giant Headwinds For the US Economy


Three Giant Headwinds For the US Economy I could read and research all day every day and never really gain as much true understanding as when I just talk to people and hear their stories. Here in rural northern Colorado, I have a lot of conversations with hard working Amer..Read More

3/22/2017 Ready... Set....


Ready… Set…. It’s been so quiet in the markets of late that we have had just about nothing to talk about, until now. As always, the Red Sky Report will let you know, what you need to know on a timely basis. So this is that time. By our measures, today’s selling mark..Read More

03/03/2017 Evidence and Prices Piling Up


Evidence and Prices Piling UP In this update, I’ll offer even more evidence that this moment in time is THAT time when we will look back at the stock market and identify it as an unbridled buying frenzy. Usually, these moments mark at least intermediate term tops. I’ll fini..Read More

03/03/2017 Fidelity Reduces Trading Fees


Fidelity Reduces Trading Fees Fidelity (our primary custodian) has long offered a $2 per trade discount from $9.95 to $7.95 to client’s that have agreed to receive their statements and trade confirmations via e-delivery. However, beginning, March 6, 2017, this fee w..Read More

02/24/2014 Tracking the Bear


Tracking The Bear I mentioned this concept in our recent Investment Forecast in the context of looking for signs of a market top, or more specifically, a rising risk structure inherent to owning stocks. Just like a hunter, we’re seeing more signs, more tracks as we get clo..Read More

02/23/2017 Active vs Passive Managers in 2017


Active vs Passive Managers in 2017 For those who reviewed our 2017 Investment Forecast Presentation (, you may recall our sentiment that conditions are ripe for passive returns to revert back to the mean, while active management s..Read More

02/08/2017 Cutting Exposure


Cutting Exposure In our home, we regularly have those conversations with our teenagers about good judgment. We frame it like this. “Ya know, the risk to reward tradeoff for that just isn’t very attractive. You have a lot more to lose than gain”. Somehow, our teens get that..Read More

01/11/2017 Another Reason to Read the Red Sky Report


Another Reason to Read the Red Sky Report At All Season Financial Advisors, we do our best to communicate effectively. Our regular Red Sky Reports assist in client awareness and serve as timely alerts to the dedicated reader. We hope that all of you are willing to read our ..Read More

01/11/2017 Putting Your Money With The Mega Trends


Putting Your Money With The Mega Trends It’s been a few weeks since my last update. That tends to happen around year end. My apologies. This is an important update for all investors (clients and non-clients). Why? Because there are some new asset class trends and accelerating ..Read More

01/04/2017 Cyber Security “Brush-Update”


Cyber Security “Brush-Update” **All Season Financial Advisors has not previously been targeted by any cyber-security threats** Recent events warrant an announcement regarding personal information security and the risks of negligent authentication processes (aka “Soc..Read More

12/22/16 - What To Do In The Last Days of 2016


What To Do In The Last Days of 2016 As we close in on the final days of 2016, I’m fielding a lot of good questions from clients. For everyone’s benefit, this update will provide some answers in a Q and A format. Special Note to All Clients – Please RSVP to o..Read More

12/12/16 Investment Opportunities Where You're Not Looking


Investment Opportunities Where You’re Not Looking You may have heard that certain sectors of the US stock market are spiking higher since the election on the back of new enthusiasm for the growth economy under president–elect Trump. You may have also heard about the carnage..Read More

11/29/16 How Wall Street is Behaving like a Kindergarten Class


How Wall Street is Behaving Like a Kindergarten Class Well that does it… all time new highs for the US stocks market were registered last week. This is another great moment to reflect on what got us here and take the pulse of current conditions. Will the Trump Rally ..Read More

11/22/16 Are You Sitting In An Investment Chair With Four Legs?


Are You Sitting In An Investment Chair With Four Legs? “Four on the Floor” is a term heard often in our house. Teenagers love to rock back and forth on every form of chair balancing on two legs, three legs, even ONE leg. I said it to my 13-year-old Bennett, this morning a..Read More

11/14/16 - Surprisingly Healthy Week


Surprisingly Healthy Week I’m not having a fun weekend and my kids don’t like me very much right now. I spent most of Saturday going through all of our indicators, one by one, with a critical eye. I needed to know, with confidence, if the market’s sudden burst back up to the old hig..Read More

11/11/16 - Election Rally Over For Now


Election Rally Over For Now I don’t believe I remember seeing a market REACT to anything with such force in my 23 years of managing money. There is an assumption that “the market” was up big this week. A few segments were up, but practically everything outside of the Dow and Smal..Read More

11/09/16 Answers To Your Questions


Answers To Your Questions Ok, so THAT happened. Let’s move on to the market’s reaction in terms of some very clear new strength and very clear new weakness. I’ll also provide a quick Q and A on a few subjects to answer those burning questions. RRR in Control ..Read More

11/4/16 Calling All Cars!


Calling All Cars! This is a brief note directing our clients to identify or put into position, new money for the purpose of adding to investments accounts. This sounds crazy after nine consecutive days of decline and two days before the most notable presidential election i..Read More

11/2/16 Pre-election Jitters


Pre-election Jitters Obviously, the markets are causing a little increase in our blood pressure as we approach next Tuesday. This update will be brief and intended to give you our sense of what our indicators are telling us now. Is this the beginning of the bear market as ..Read More

10/27/16 What to Expect


What To Expect It is almost a daily practice for our firm to help our clients do projections on their investment earnings, reasonable withdrawal rates and other issues related to retirement goals and saving. We have some solid numbers to work with in these discussions as o..Read More

10/25/16 The New and Improved Worldwide Sectors Strategy


The New and Improved Worldwide Sectors Strategy Periodically, we recognize that a certain strategy needs improvement. This comes about from our own internal critique regarding our results over time much more than from client disappointment. At the end of last year, we found ou..Read More

10/18/16 Sell Hubris, Buy Humiliation


Sell Hubris, Buy Humiliation Michael Hartnett, a strategist for Bank of America first came out with this beautiful statement back in February of this year. His speculations then are now becoming realities but they are just getting started. Many of these themes are not new ..Read More

10/10/16 - Checking in on FEEAR


Checking in on FEEAR No that is not a typo. Our FEEAR acronym stands for the Federal Reserve, Elections and EARnings. After last night’s political event, the market this morning is casting its vote. Current clients should continue reading for an important announcement regarding t..Read More

9/27/16 - We'll Know Tonight


We’ll Know Tonight The super bowl of politics is tonight and by the end of the debate, I think we’ll have a pretty good idea of who will take over the presidency in 2017. I’m not making a forecast and I say this without any sarcasm or expectations. Assuming we actually witness a..Read More

9/22/16 - If You Knew The Future


If You Knew The Future, Would You Invest Accordingly Today? Of course this question is rhetorical and the answer is yes… of course. Investors are relegated to just a couple of options when making decisions today with their investments in regards to future events and..Read More

09/14/16 What's The Risk?


What’s the Risk? Perhaps a better question is, where is the risk in the market today? I see a lot of herd type investor activity in today’s market that is largely reacting to headlines and negative news. As such, this is an important moment for investors to reaffirm their ..Read More

09/12/16 Another Squall


Another Squall It’s been smooth sailing since July for global financial markets, a little too smooth. Now we find ourselves facing another healthy squall as sellers are taking some profits ahead of the Fed meeting on the 20th, the end of the quarter and the election in Novemb..Read More

09/02/16 Thoughts on Real Estate


Thoughts on Real Estate Many of our clients are getting caught up in the real estate “thing” again. I think it’s time to take the pulse of this important segment of our economy. Back in 2003 Almost exactly 13 years ago, I stood in front of our clie..Read More

08/26/2016 $9 Trillion Reasons


$9 Trillion Reasons Today, the widely anticipated commentary from Janet Yellen was delivered. I listened to the majority of her statement, until I couldn’t stay awake. All said, I think the Fed’s position on interest rates and the possibility of a September rate hike is about exac..Read More

08/25/16 - New Power – Ready to Run?


New Power – Ready to Run? It’s been a while since I did an update on our most speculative stock strategy called New Power, but there are some recent developments that have me excited about this program. I’ll do my best to help you see what I see. What Is New Po..Read More

08/19/16 The Question


The Question There is one question I am repeatedly asked now and it’s a good one. Is It Too Late To Get In? That’s the question. Before I answer, I want to back up for a minute and take advantage of this opportunity to do a little investor educati..Read More

08/02/2016 The Surge Continues Until...


The Surge Continues Until... Many are calling this breakout to new highs a new bull market.While we can call it whatever we'd like, the price action we're seeing today is nothing new.It is simply another surge higher in an on-going bull market that began in 2009.So what ..Read More

07/13/16 - The Long Hot Summer


The Long Hot Summer Is there such a saying as 26th time is a charm? Doubtful.Yes, after 25 unsuccessful attempts by the S&P 500 to break and hold above the 2100 level, it finally happened.The trouble that began almost 2 years ago, driving volatility higher and stock pr..Read More

06/27/2016 - The Nature of the Beast


The Nature of the Beast So now we’ve seen another reminder of what happens to markets when investors panic. Last Friday was a beast of a day throughout stock markets around the world as they reacted sharply to the Brexit news. Today wasn’t much better. What I find interesti..Read More

06/24/16 Just What We Needed?


Just What We Needed? No really. As I’m watching global stock sell off by 3% accompanied by all but bonds, gold, the US Dollar and the Yen, I’m realizing that this is exactly what we need to see as a POTENTIAL set up for all time new highs in the 3rd quarter. Doubt ..Read More

6/17/2016 Upside Down


Upside Down(side) There’s a lot I don’t like about the market action since my last update on 6/8, which admittedly had a bullish tone to it. Such is the plight of anyone attempting to provide a written analysis of current market conditions, as we can easily look silly the mo..Read More

06.08.2016 - Another Surge?


Another Surge? The market seems to be angling for a break out to new highs; in some cases it has already done so. Just when it had everyone convinced the bull market was over. Investors who were participants in the 90’s, have seen this before. Here’s what you can expect. ..Read More

05/24/2016 - If I Were The Federal Reserve


If I Were the Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve is talking again, working hard to (re)convince the financial world that rate hikes are still possible and coming soon. If we believe the message, and we trust they are looking at good data, we need to be aware that we could ..Read More

05/12/16 Your Questions Answered


Your Questions – Answered Having recently completed our latest round of client reviews with households from many different walks of life, I found myself hearing and answering the same comments and set of questions. These are relevant and timely questions in light of market condi..Read More

05.05.16 - May The 4th Be With Us!


May the 4th Be With Us! You might not have known that yesterday was National Star Wars day. My kids assured me. One went to school with green tape on his chest. It read, i = (M)(A). Public recognition and kudos for anyone who know what that means, (hint - Think about your p..Read More

04/27/2016 Why Pay an Asset Manager? - Risk vs Return Part II


Why Pay an Asset Manager? – Risk Versus Return Part II It’s so predictable to see the same financial headlines every time the market bounces back up to the old highs. Why pay an asset manager who is destined to underperform most stock indices right? Why not just buy the f..Read More

04/21/16 False Expectations


False Expectations So I’ve been waiting for the right opportunity to say this for quite a while. I think the time has come. Investors have been deceived by the financial services industry by setting false expectations regarding the relationship between risk and returns. ..Read More

04/04/16 Teaching Moments


It’s funny to hear and see when investors magically forget their near panicked emotional state of just 45 days ago. Now that the markets have just recovered from the “worst start of the year in history”, all is forgi..Read More

03/22/16 - From The Top


From the Top As we know, the view “from the top” can be quite different. Today, we find the US stock market again approaching our previous tops made on June 21st (S&P 2130) and November 3rd (S&P 2109). Today the index is trading at 2051. This is a great moment to ..Read More

03/09/16 Low Hanging Fruit


Low Hanging Fruit Investing is never easy and there really is no such thing as low hanging fruit. But there are times when valuations are stretched to the downside in certain sectors, stocks, asset classes and countries making it easy(er) to make a case for new purchases. Buyer ..Read More

03/04/2016 Another Important Moment


Another Important Moment As promised, we'll continue to send out timely information with this Red Sky Report on an as needed basis.Since the middle of February, when the market embarked on this predictable recovery rally, the only real news has been about politics and who n..Read More

Getting Close


Getting Close It’s been a good couple weeks for the global financial markets in an all inclusive way.Stocks, bonds, commodities, oil, gold and high yield credit have all been rebounding nicely off the 1/25 and 2/11 lows.As we discussed in early February, the set up for a str..Read More

02/19/2016 - Resistant


There is probably one word that describes what I see happening in this market. That word is RESISTANT. Buyers Still Resistant After a very strong up week for stocks (nearly +5%), I was surprised to see the degree to which short term traders appear resistant to ..Read More

02/11/2016 - Ready to Act


There are times when we need to be ready to act with our financial assets, whether we talking about investment choices, loans or cash. I think we’re getting close to one of those times. Bonds- Getting Ready to Bail Again Treasury Bonds have done a great job for in..Read More

02/08/2016 - We've Got This


My youngest son is putting grey hair on my head. He loves to do big jumps in ski terrain parks, launch huge rocks and make videos with his GoPro like every kid his age (12). Sometimes, I can’t watch. In one of his recent videos, I heard him confidently say to himself, “I’ve got this” as he..Read More

02/04/2016 - Big Changes


There are some big things happening in the market suddenly. If they hold and persist, investors will have many more options to make money in 2016 than current sentiment would imply. Here’s what’s happening and where those opportunities are developing. US Dollar Just Broke Down ..Read More

02/01/2016 - 2016 Best Bets – Part III


Before we get too far into the year, we need to get out one more edition of our 2016 Best Bets series. The focus for this update will be internationals, specifically which countries are the most attractive from a fundamental perspective as well as some suggestions for how, and to what degre..Read More

01/25/2016 - Not Yet...


The bear market that began in late December is following the script of previous bear markets pretty closely including a very predictable short term low that developed late last week. If things play out as they have in the past in terms of investor behavior, price patterns and timing, then w..Read More

01/19/2016 - WWBD?


Bear markets push our buttons. They shake our commitments, our conviction and our investment compass. They lead us emotionally to that dark place where we ask, is investing just a sucker's game? Let this update serve as a reaffirmation for why we invest in the stock or bond markets and how to do..Read More

01/14/16 - Ringing The Bell


Ringing the Bell I am told during boot camp for the marines, there is the ever present option for participants to ring out, meaning they literally walk up to a bell, ring it, and pack their bags. Late last year, I had several updates talking about how market tops rarely have..Read More

01/13/2016 - Signs of a Washout


These are the hard days for investors. We all want to pull the plug, sell everything, cut and run. Fear and doubt start to creep into our thinking, hourly, in the dark hours. I’m going to interrupt our 2016 Best Bets Series to provide a little emotional peace of mind. You may hav..Read More

2016 Best Bets - Part II 01/07/2016


2016 Best Bets – Part II After what now appears to be a very timely Part I update pointing to lower prices in the first quarter of 2016, let’s now move on to Part II where we’ll cover selectivity. Which asset classes, styles, sectors, or select industries are looking the most attr..Read More

01/04/2016 - 2016 Best Bets, Part I


After spending thousands of hours working to make money unproductively, we’re more than happy to close up 2015 and are looking forward to the next year of investing. This update will begin a series that focuses on developing opportunities as we see them in 2016. Thankfully, as we complete ..Read More

12/18/2015 - Reaction to the Fed


Market volatility is on the rise with 200+/- point days on the Dow becoming standard. The market has taken back all of the short term gains leading up to the Fed’s decision this week plus a few points. For all the chatter about a rate hike being completely factored in, I am seei..Read More

12/15/2015 - Get Ready to Act in 2016


In 2014, when I first broadcast the notion of this year being a “Transition Year”, I probably understated what we’re actually seeing today. We have seen some wild moves that are far beyond the forecasts calling for slightly higher volatility. But from the wreckage, we find opportunity and ..Read More

12/07/2015 - Saved by the Bell


As I mentioned Thursday, “If we don’t see a quick rebound in stocks like tomorrow or early next week, the weight of this evidence will become heavy indeed.” Well, it looks like we got that quick rebound and it happened at a good spot. For now, the (selling) pressure is off but the negative ..Read More

12/03/2015 - There Is No Bell


Knowing when to sell is always the hardest thing about investing. After years of rising prices, we all have a sense of worry about pending doom. But, really that “wall of worry” is a characteristic that remains pervasive through all RISING market trends. We always think the end is right ar..Read More

11/30/2015 - Wrapping Up


Thanksgiving weekend sort of marks the beginning of the end of the year for me. It acts like an intersection where we look both ways before stepping forward. For this update, we'll look backwards at the challenges of 2015 and forward toward the developing landscape for 2016. ..Read More

11/18/15 - A Few Strategy Changes


A Few Strategy Changes This update is more of an FYI piece regarding two of our strategies, specifically the New Power Strategy and the Foundations strategy. The intention is to provide a little real time education and insights into our systems and how we adapt to market condition..Read More

11/9/2015 - Back on the Expansion Road


Back on Track It has taken the US market two months to recover from the deceptive path laid out by Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve at their September meeting. At that time, they stood at the intersection of Expansion and Contraction streets and nearly blocked the expansion path d..Read More

10/26/15 - Repeating The Past


Repeating the Past? In late September, when the market was retesting the August lows, I made the comment that the situation, timing, price patterns, investor sentiment and smell of the market felt a lot like 1998. Of course, the fact that I have first hand knowledge of market con..Read More

10/7/2015 - Make or Break Point


Make or Break Point Well, the rebound rally from a successful retest of the August 25th lows has been predictably large from a market perspective but as I suggested last update, winners and losers have been far different than anything we’ve seen thus far in 2015. Regardless, all..Read More

10/02/2015 - What You Should Be Thinking And Doing Now


This update will be directed at your mind which no doubt has a lot of little voices stirring around. Find yourself in the paragraphs below. Entering the Best 6 Months For Stocks Yes, the "Sell in May and Walk Away" thing seems to have worked again. Actually, the mantra s..Read More

09/29/2015 - Sanity


These are the hard days. When stocks are down, portfolios are down, the world is down and headlines speak of nothing but The End. How do we keep our sanity and stay in control in the face of it all? Emotional Capital In our world of risk management, we are always focused..Read More

09/23/2015 - Sticking With Strong Defense


Sticking With Strong Defense.. But Making Our Shopping List Since the Federal Reserve spiked the punch bowl last Thursday, we have seen nothing but persistent selling pressure in the stock market. Bonds have done a little dance in place but not made headway and most benchmark commodit..Read More

09/18/15 - What Now?


Here’s our quick take on what just happened with the Fed and what we might expect looking forward including the market’s reaction so far. Foreign Aid “Act” I no longer have confidence in the current Federal Reserve to make hard choices, at least..Read More

09/16/2015 - Rate Hikes...A Necessary Evil


All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week. Will they raise rates on Thursday or not? It’s important to understand what’s going on now, as events in the coming months are likely to push us further down the road toward the End Game of which I have spoken for almost two yea..Read More

09/04/15 - Clearing Up


Today was another ugly day, capping off an ugly week for stocks. Thus far, everything we see is still constructive toward the development of a meaningful bottom. Because you asked - we are purposely sending out more frequent but brief updates for our clients and interested parties given the..Read More

09/01/2015 - Inflection Zone


The markets seem to be marching to the script pretty well with the healthy rebound off the lows of last Tuesday. We sent out a special notice on Wednesday indicating that strong probability given the extreme oversold condition. Now we are at an important inflection zone again. What Y..Read More

08/25/15 - It's All Relative


Another quick update for everyone. We know you have very short term concerns so here are some comments regarding the market, performance and our plans in the very short term. The Market Yesterday saw a mini crash in the markets at the open. This is no longer news as everyone hear..Read More

08/24/15 - Your Questions & Calling All Cars!


The long awaited correction in global financial markets is in full swing now, fear is at a maximum and selling just to get out has become an investment strategy. For anyone with money in the markets, this last weekend was not fun as we ponder the possibility of wealth disappearing, of market cr..Read More

08/18/15 - Buyer in the Hole?


Looking back over the last 12 months, we can see the market has been working hard to get ready for this widely anticipated event next month. Selectivity has become very pronounced as seen through indices like the NYSE stock index down 2-3% since July of 2014. Last week there was a notable shift..Read More

08/12/15 - Super Selection


The word is out; the markets are under selling pressure and prices are down, down, down. Well, at least the vast majority of prices, indices and world markets are down while a very select few are still hanging tough at new highs. Such is the hallmark of an aging bull market. There is st..Read More

07/27/15 - More Warnings...


As I mentioned a week ago, the US stock market gave us all another opportunity to cut out weaker positions or upgrade as desired with the revisit to the top of the range. Now, six trading days later, prices across the board are down hard and revisiting an important support level (2044 on ..Read More

07/21/15 - Gentle Reminders Part II


Investors will be holding their collective breaths over the course of the next week or so. The markets have moved back up to the top of the range from which we have seen so many failures over the course of the last year. This is a critical time for the global stock markets. Either stocks will ..Read More

07/14/15 - Shaken But Not Disturbed


I have taken a few calls of concern from clients in the last month or so. The questions are about what if scenarios with China, Greece and the pending move in raising interest rates by the Fed. More directly, there have been some performance concerns surrounding our Blended Asset models. For ..Read More

07/01/15 - Our View


Our View... Strangely enough, after seeing the fallout from the news of Greece’s failure to come to an agreement with its creditors, I’m left with a sense of relief. The setup for a very good-looking buying opportunity is now developing. In the meantime, we’ll continue to..Read More

06/23/15 - Not My Favorite


As I said last week, the markets were “On the Edge” where buyers would either step up to support the market or we would have to start taking defensive steps. Thankfully, it looks like buyers stepped up giving us a little breathing room to sit with our current (high) market exposure...Read More

06/15/15 - On the Edge


After six months of very junky action in the world’s financial markets, it’s safe to say that investors are getting tired and frustrated. As of June 11th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is exactly 1 point higher than where it was on Dec. 29th, 2014. At the same time, it hasn&rsqu..Read More

06/09/15 - Crossing Wall Street, Part II


Back in the late 90’s, I ran a series of articles and presentations called, “Crossing Wall Street… and learning to look both ways”. I should have written a book but that’s far too sensational for my personality. Anyway, as the market approached extremes in v..Read More

06/02/15 - My Journal


I keep a journal of my market thoughts and observations each day. It's just a cheap bound writing journal book like any you would use to write essays back in school. I date each page and literally scribble stuff like which sectors are leading, important lines in the sand for certain stocks or ..Read More

05/20/15 - Wanna Play a Game?


Here’s the deal. You have a one in six chance of winning. It costs $10 to play and you have the chance to win $1Million in cash. Pretty good odds right? If you want play, read on. (hat tip to recently retired Greg Morris for this) The Cost of Not Winning The game is called Rus..Read More

05/11/15 - Out of Balance Part II


In 2014, we conducted one of our Solution Series webcasts called “Getting Out of Balance”. The webcast was predictive at the time suggesting that investors avoid becoming complacent about the safety and security in things call Balanced Funds, or Life Strategies or Target Date funds. ..Read More

05/04/15 - Still on the Treadmill


For the moment, the widely heralded breakout to new highs on the 24th by a select few stock indices may have been just another short visit to the top of the trading range established in both December and February. The US stock market is just not ready to get off the treadmill quite yet. We are..Read More

04/27/15 - Congratulations to the Nasdaq Composite?


Last Friday marked an important day in the financial markets – to some. On that day, the Nasdaq Composite finally made an all time new high from the level set in March of the year 2000. Yes, it took fifteen (pronounced Fif – teen) years for this brave index to recover from the loss..Read More

04/22/15 - Get Out the Map


As I happen to be traveling across the great deserts of the west in Utah and Arizona for our family spring break mountain bike trip, we found ourselves quite literally in the middle of nowhere with no cellular service. At a cross roads, we had to make a bit of a blind choice and one that could ..Read More

03/30/15 - Angling Toward Success


We began 2015 with our Change of Seasons ( report describing in absurd detail, how our investment process works. Specifically, that report started with a big bold statement of our goals across al..Read More

03/23/15 - A Breath of Fresh New Highs


Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve must be terrified of saying the wrong thing. So much so in fact, that they continue to tell the markets exactly what they want to hear giving investors every reason to continue pumping money into stocks and bonds. Indeed, last week the market got a bre..Read More

03/16/15 - The Two Armed Advisor


The Two Armed Advisor We’ve all heard the joke about the quest for the one armed advisor – The one who will give us advice without saying “on the other hand”. This commentary will be chuck full of two handed type guidance. Such is the nature of messy markets an..Read More

03/09/15 - A Toast to Darwin


One of the things I truly cherish about our methods and style is the flexibility it offers when market conditions change. Last week, I suggested the primary bull market uptrend was still intact and a strategy of buying short term dips was still a good one. One week later, I am staring str..Read More

03/03/15 - Wonky


Would you believe I was on an airplane last Wednesday evening after meeting with a dozen or so clients in Denver, Monday and Tuesday and realized that I never wrote the weekly Red Sky Report? Wow – I’ve been writing weekly for almost 7 years and I don’t think I’ve every ..Read More

02/17/15 - Chugging Higher


New Highs for the markets last week and a major shift in leadership to go with it. This appears to be the rotation into late cycle (Stage III) leadership we have been waiting for and its typically good time for smart investors who know where to go. Revisiting Our Predictions ..Read More

02/09/15 - Little Jimmy


As we suggested last week, it looks like January 30th was a meaningful short term bottom for the US stock market. Buyers are stepping up again while mom and pop statistically are getting nervous. February has also ushered in a new list of leaders that point to a higher market for March an..Read More

02/02/15 - The Plot Sickens


If you didn't spend the time to read last week’s Change of Seasons report (, you should do so. At the request of our advisory board, made up of client households just like you, we have made..Read More

01/26/15 - QuEasy Money


With the exception of the Federal Reserve in the US, Central banks across the world have embarked on an almost unified effort to stimulate their economies by firing up the QE machine (again). What does it mean for US investors? Let me first say that I don’t believe this grand experim..Read More

01/15/15 - "2015 So Far"


As one of our clients opined recently, “I knew I would need to buckle up a bit this year but didn't expect I would need a 6 point harness!” Yes the widely expected higher market volatility is with us now. Losers are becoming more pronounced and worrisome while gainers have been lim..Read More

01/05/15 - Part III 2015 Forecasts - Back to the Future


Happy New Year! Slipping just under the wire with my final post on 2015 forecasts, I’d like to cover what I see as likely investor sentiment and behavior patterns as the 3rd part of this forward looking series. Can you believe that 2015 was the future date set in t..Read More

12/17/14 - Potential Market Patterns for 2015


Continuing on our series of forward looking wild speculations about 2015, this update will be about timing and possible price patterns. Clearly, this is reckless and meaningless when it comes down to it, as conditions will always change making forecasting look silly. As they say, forecast..Read More

12/09/14 - Themes for 2015


And so it begins, themes and forecasts for the New Year. As usual, December will be a month to sponge all the prognostications and form an opinion to help guide investment choices throughout 2015. As the first of this forward looking series, we’ll start with the high level themes of what we..Read More

12/01/14 - Washing Out


While we were all sitting around rubbing our bellies last Friday, the financial world not so quietly turned meaningfully. Energy and the commodities complex may have just experienced a washout event in the short term. Several other sectors are running into price pattern trouble and the stock marke..Read More

11/25/14 - All The Trimmings


Managing your money without a well-defined risk control system is a bit like Thanksgiving dinner without any of the trimmings. While the markets are exploding out to new highs again in near vertical fashion and investors again seem scared of nothing, it’s a great time to monitor the statu..Read More

11/17/14 - Revelations


Don’t worry, I’m not going to get biblical on you with this update. But, I do have several market and personal finance revelations to share that every investor should know at this stage of the cycle. Benchmark Revelations The financial services industry always seems obse..Read More

11/10/14 - The Fog of War


Statistically and emotionally, the market action last week put to rest many investor fears, specifically those questioning whether the bull market in stocks was still alive. Prices did not succumb to selling pressure after the enormous recovery in late October, but instead marched higher with b..Read More

11/03/14 - Reasonable Doubt


The current bull market, now in its 6th year of existence, has been called the least respected of all bulls. Investors simply refuse to give it due credit, nor invest much of their hoards of cash paying nearly zero. Behind all the disrespect, there has been that underlying assumption of guilt ..Read More

10/28/14 - Buyer in the Hole!


Well I can’t say that last week’s rebound rally was a surprise after all the positive technical set ups we saw on 10/15 (listed last week). What did surprise me was both the strength and magnitude of the move pushing right into the close on Friday. Bulls are still very much in ..Read More

10/20/14 - Watershed Wednesday


Yes, they are already coming up with cute names for the latest round of panic in the financial markets – last Wednesday. I think Watershed Wednesday is going to be an accurate title for its notable extremes in both bond and equity markets worldwide. Will it prove to be the bottom? ..Read More

10/13/14 - Overweight Risk Management


Yes last week was ugly and yes everyone has the same question – Is the Bull Market Over? While our heart rate quickens and we become more prone to emotionally devastating trading behavior, let’s review some best “risk management” practices. Hint – I’m not going ..Read More

10/06/14 - Themes


The longer I’m in this business, the more I recognize the importance of investing with the dominant themes of the day. I’m going to talk a lot about this at the Annual Fire Side Chat on Thursday for those who are attending. This update will identify and define the concept of themes and..Read More

09/29/14 - Priced In?


Did I mention that September is typically a tough month for investors? This one has been no fun. Thankfully, in the process of 10-15% declines in several sectors, asset classes and international indices, we are seeing some real value opportunities develop. The market has done a good job of pricin..Read More

09/22/14 - Planning Ahead


Today is the fall Equinox, the official first day of fall. For the cosmically inclined, this is a day of balance with equal emphasis on high energy (the sun) and restoration (the moon). So as we respect the change of seasons and natural transition to the other side, I’m going to spend this u..Read More

09/15/14 - Grinding Through September


September is living up to its reputation as a tough month for investors. While the S&P 500 and other “benchmark” indices are still trading within 2% of all time highs, the real damage to the markets has been far more severe over the last couple months. Recognizing ..Read More

09/08/14 - Changing of the Guard


Last week, the S&P 500 closed solidly above he 2000 level for the first time in history. Last week also marked the 2,006th day of rising prices if we date all the way back to the final bear market lows on March 9th of 2009. Investors have long forgotten what stock market pain ..Read More

09/02/14 - A Dirty Secret


Why is it that Sept and October are two of the toughest months for investors with such radical differences between winners and losers? It wasn’t until I ran my own mutual fund that I understood this little dirty secret. Mutual Fund Bonus Time The end of the 3rd qua..Read More

08/26/14 - Party Like It's 1999


For those in my age group, you remember don’t you? Prince? party like crazy because it was all going to end once the clock hit Y2K (Year 2000). Today, the S&P 500 is having its own party crossing into the 2000s. Is this the beginning of the end or has the correction run..Read More

08/18/14 - The Search for Growth


While short term price trends sometime make us nervous with the potential for periodic losses or worse, stock investors are generally always on the lookout for long term growth opportunities. With the current bull market in its 5th year of existence and valuations creeping toward th..Read More

08/14/14 - Perspective


What a mess. Big headlines in a time when traders are on the beach during a natural soft spot in the year leads to the type of market we have seen over the last couple weeks. While we’re chewing on Tums, it’s important to keep a few things in perspective. US Mar..Read More

08/04/14 - Here We Go?


If you are thinking that means going into a massively destructive bear market, again, the answer is no. If you are thinking that means the markets are doing exactly what we’ve been talking about for the last 6 months, then right you are! But If You’re Such a Gen..Read More

07/28/14 - Shifty


This is a confusing market to many investors, and with good reason. For as many times as I hear analysts suggest that the markets are on solid footing, I see growing evidence that the ground is quickly shifting beneath us. While it’s important to maintain a sense of rising or f..Read More

07/21/14 - Poking the Bear


The US stock market started into a new correction pattern on the 3rd of July and that condition remains the same today despite some marginal evidence to the contrary. This may prove to be just another brief decline before blasting out to new highs or the beginning of something more significant. Ei..Read More

07/08/14 - Risk Controls


“The financial system cannot absorb unlimited money forever without adverse consequences, but the current environment may last a lot longer than most of us expect — and it will likely end much more abruptly than most of us expect. In the meantime, I recommend participating in the bul..Read More

05/07/14 - Jack be Nimble


Understanding that “Jack” is a street term for money, you might appreciate the pun. I believe we have entered a market environment where there is still upside opportunity, perhaps even significant upside, but that ultimately we are angling toward another bubbly equity market conditi..Read More

04/01/14 - Hangover Year


Hangover Year As the first quarter of 2014 comes to a close, I can’t help but feel like the financial markets are behaving as if freshly awaking after a night of too much drink. The hangover is not a pleasant thing and the price we pay for too much self-indulgence. It can hurt and is oft..Read More

01/28/14 - Fear and Opportunity


After 3 days and a mild 3% correction, investors are now remembering what it feels like to lose money in the stock market. It’s been a while since we’ve seen any real selling pressure so no doubt, this seems new and awful. By Friday of last week, the selective selling of the ..Read More

01/21/14 - 2014 "Call"


January is the most interesting month of the year for investors, at least it should be. It’s like a “call” in any card game when the betting stops and everyone still in play shows what they have. Winners and losers are established, those who have been bluffing are shame..Read More

01/06/14 - GULP and GARP


Well I can’t say that I’m that surprised with the start of the year beginning negative for stocks – now down a bit over 1% in the first three trading days. The end of 2013 was just a bit too good and we should expect some profit taking early in the new year, right. ..Read More

12/23/13 - Forecast for 2014


Being Wrong and Staying Wrong Before I get into this year’s forecast for the market, let me say a quick comment about humility as an investor. Being wrong about your assumptions, beliefs about the future, is part of the game. Humility is an investor’s best friend as the ..Read More

12/10/13 - Ho, ho, ho...Hum


December is typically a good month for stocks and I don’t expect any real upsets this year. Some are beginning to wonder as the start of this month hasn’t been as healthy as one might want. The patient investor will like to hear that the weight of evidence still points to hig..Read More

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